Viktor Gyökeres: What Are the Big Clubs Waiting For?

Introduction

It is no secret that Viktor Gyökeres is going to be the next big money striker sometime in the very near future. Since the start of the ‘23-24 campaign, only Harry Kane (40) has scored more league goals than the Swede’s 37.

Impressive as that is, he is way more than just goals, as I came to find out in doing some research on him.

A Galactico Level Talent

DataMB has 285 players in the “Top 7 League Strikers” 2023/24 dataset, so the 95th percentile lands right around the 15th best player.

If you use the Index Tool to look at the top 15 strikers in Touches in the Box per 90 and Dribbles per 90, only four names appear on both lists: three Galacticos, and the article’s protagonist. On top of this, with 239 Touches in box and 265 Dribbles last season, Gyökeres ranked first in total numbers for both metrics.

I know Mbappé was not on Real Madrid for the season in which these statistics were accrued, but I feel my point still holds weight. Any time a forward is first on a list that also includes Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Rodrygo, it is quite the prestigious achievement.

Let’s take it a step further and look the strikers with the most goals last season.

Only two names remain… Gyökeres, and the current best footballer on the planet.

I’ll repeat: the only two strikers in Europe’s Top 7 Leagues that can be deemed ‘anomalously good’ at possession in the danger area, dribbling, and goal scoring are Kylian Mbappé and Viktor Gyökeres. If that is not an endorsement to justify his £85m release clause, I’m not sure what it will take.

Yes, that is a steep price to pay, but aside from the above exercise, here are three reasons why the major clubs in Europe should be jumping at the chance to pay as little as eight figures for a striker of Gyökeres’ caliber.

Elite Finishing

A bit of a caveat before I delve into this one. I conducted some research recently that loosely points to a 400 shot sample being an acceptable point to start drawing conclusions from a player’s Goals-xG differential, and unfortunately, that takes many seasons to accumulate. Gyökeres had 102 shots last season, so understand that things might still change as his career progresses, but for the sample at hand, he is an outstanding finisher.

I looked at the difference between the expected goals and the actual output, to see which players outperformed their xG the most.

Gyökeres has the 8th best mark in the entire group, and is in the company of some spectacular forwards, such as the aforementioned Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé, Bundesliga and La Liga Golden Boot runner-ups Serhou Guirassy and Alexander Sørloth, as well as another similarly labeled “next big money striker”, Benjamin Šeško.

Aggressive Ball Carrying

Flat out, it is ridiculously impressive that Viktor Gyökeres had the fourth most dribble attempts per 90 minutes for strikers at the rather imposing height of 187cm (6’1”).

Using the Plots tool, I have graphed Dribbles/90 and Dribble % for our Top 7 League Striker sample group.

The cluster directly around Gyökeres is pretty impressive. To be in the same ilk as some of the best ball carrying forward/winger hybrids in Europe is one thing, but to do it as a traditional no. 9 striker is a completely different achievement.

If you spend any amount of time watching the Swede’s YouTube comps (hopefully less than I have), you’ll see his flair and dribbling prowess immediately and repeatedly. If not for being one of the best goal-scorers in Europe, his flicks and body feints alone are potent enough to make him a Grade A “The Streets Won’t Forget” player.

Creativity in Build Up

One of my favorite new tools on the site is the customizable radar/pie chart on the Rank page. To get a better picture of the chance creation side of Gyökeres’ game, I pulled in all of the related metrics, some closely aligned like xA, and some a bit more tangential like pass into the final 3rd %. Compared to other forwards, Gyökeres does most of his damage in and around the box. Most of the metrics related to direct chance creation are well above average, and the more ‘playmaking in possession’ statistics are lagging (progressive passing, for example).


Something caught my eye with this; Gyökeres’ strong standing in two specific categories: deep completions and key passes.

Both of these stats are centered around a players’ ability to create shots for their teammates, and while Viktor does not blow the competition out of the water like he does with the categories touched on previously in this article, I still felt it important to pull the thread a bit further.

So, I plotted the two stats with the Top 7 League Striker sample group.

The important part here is not so much Gyökeres’ placement on the graph (although it is a favorable one).

Rather, my focus is on the company with which he keeps - as in the players with similar marks to him. Some of the names around him are high-level forward playmakers and even second strikers, such as Kai Havertz, Julian Álvarez, and Cody Gakpo.

To have around the same statistical level of creative playmaking as Julian Álvarez, dribble take on ability as Kylian Mbappé, and lethal finishing as Harry Kane takes a special player.

To do all three of those things at once takes a transcendent talent; one that is ready to take his place at the top of the club game.

So, I ask the major clubs of Europe (most of which have been linked to a striker at some point in the last year), what are you waiting for?

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