Samba Statistics: A Preview of Brazil’s Copa America Tournament
Introduction
Brazil has more talent on the wings than every other team in the tournament combined, but has major questions in the midfield in terms of finding a balanced combination. Also, their manager is already looking over his shoulder.
Sound familiar? That is just the ‘Brazil at a major tournament’ experience. In this preview, we will go through an analytical inquisition of a few of the major questions heading into the Copa America.
Let’s dive in!
Right Back Battle: Yan Couto vs. Danilo
This might not be one of the major storylines heading into the tournament for the Seleção Canarinho, but it is certainly a debate I want to bring to the forefront. Well, it might not be a debate for Dorival Júnior, but I would like to make it one anyways.
Brazil will be bringing two right backs to this tournament, but also zero at the same time. By that, I mean there will be two players capable of playing at right back, but neither is best suited as a traditional right back in a four back system. Danilo (of Juventus) is a center back that deputizes at right back for club and country, and Yan Couto (of Girona) plays in such an advanced position for Míchel that he almost acts more like a winger or a midfielder, even though he is the right back.
As you would expect with this dichotomy of profiles, each player comes with their own relative strengths and weaknesses. Their actual profiles:
One thing is abundantly clear: Both players are exceptional progressors of the ball, Couto with his carrying, and Danilo with his passing. In fact, these are the only major statistical categories each player is above the 90th percentile in.
A bit worrying that both players are also below the 40th percentile for defensive actions and defensive duel win rate. That said, this area definitely favors Danilo, as his marks are generally higher, and the bar of comparison is much higher, given he is competing against center back counting metrics.
Personally, I am a huge fan of Yan Couto’s. I think he is developing into one of the best full backs in world football, and his marauding style is simply a joy to watch. In fact, he led La Liga in accelerations per 90 minutes (a meaningful run of more than 10 meters), not just for full backs, but for every position. Here is what the top 5 for full back looked like:
He is just miles ahead of the field.
All that said, the way it looks like Brazil will be lining up, Danilo might be the better option.
Without Casemiro in the side to shield the back line and spring attacks with his progressive passing, Brazil will need to find these qualities elsewhere, or else they might be exposed when facing the top opposition in this tournament. Danilo provides these same qualities from the right back spot; more willing to stay back and defend, and an excellent forward passer.
Couto might be the more fun option at right back, and he will more than likely come on as a sub to spark the Seleção if they find themselves in a contest, but Danilo is probably the more practical option.
Replacing Casemiro (in the Aggregate)
If you have never seen the movie Moneyball, I highly suggest you watch it. Given the fact that you are 571 words into an analytical sports article, I think the chances are pretty high that you have. In the event you have not, here is the quick summary: a baseball team is tragically underfunded and turns to a general manager to save the team, who in turn places his trust in analytics to find underrated and inexpensive players. This is the same approach Brentford has executed to perfection to enable their stay in the Premier League.
There is a scene where Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt), the General Manager, is explaining to the rest of the team’s player personnel staff how they will replace their best player that left in the offseason. He utters the famous line; “We can’t replace him. Now what we might be able to do is recreate him in the aggregate.”
Casemiro had a poor season for Manchester United this year, and it looks to be a sign of his career being on the decline. He was left out of the Copa America squad, and Brazil does not have a world-class defensive midfielder to backfill him, which leaves Dorival Júnior needing to ‘recreate him in the aggregate.’
Now, if they were to do this in true Moneyball fashion, they would have a midfield base of Vinicius Souza and Éderson:
How crazy is that? Comparing Casemiro in his prime (his ‘21/22 season) to Éderson and Souza from this season, you can simply take the Atalanta man’s passing profile and the Sheffield United man’s defensive profile and it is an alarming match.
Unfortunately, this would require using two players to fill the role of one, which would compromise the squad in other positions. Plus, Souza did not receive the call for this tournament, so it is not possible anyways. I discovered this uncanny match in researching for this article, and while it will not factor into Brazil’s tournament, I felt it too compelling not to share.
Even if it is impossible to recreate Casemiro with this crop of midfielders, Dorival Júnior will need to find a way to balance a very forward-oriented group. To start, let’s look at the potential options to sit at the base of the midfield:
I included Souza and Danilo (of Nottingham Forest) as they were eligible for selection and profile more as defensive midfielders. The others (Andreas Pereira, Douglas Luiz, Lucas Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães, Éderson, and João Gomes) all made the trip.
In terms of players available for selection, only João Gomes stands out as a reliable presence to consistently shield the center backs. I do not see a way for Brazil to line up in their preferred 4-3-3 and not put Gomes at the base of the midfield triangle.
The other major skill needed in the midfield is the ability to play consistent forward, line-breaking passes to launch the attack, keep possession, and ensure the front line receives the ball in a position to do some damage. Using the DataMB Pro Plotting tool, I compared progressive pass attempts / 90 and progressive pass accuracy for the midfielders listed above.
João Gomes is the only player making the trip that is not capable of this role in the midfield, while Lucas Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães, Éderson are all fully equipped to pull the strings from the middle of the park.
The final criteria, and in my mind, actually the least important, is the ability to carry out from the midfield. All of the likely starters up front are excellent direct runners, which is why I would place emphasis on passing over carrying. That said, it cannot hurt to have runners from deep. The eligible contestants…
Are Douglas Luiz and Andreas Pereira. Pereira is the better of the two in this regard, but the current Aston Villa (likely future Juventus) man offers more in other arenas.
This brings us to the climax of the midfield discussion: how will Brazil ‘replace’ Casemiro by fielding the best possible midfield three to maximize their strengths up front? My vote: João Gomes at the base with Éderson and Douglas Luiz ahead.
I understand this is not a popular selection, but my reasoning is this: it provides the most balance and fits best with what the rest of the squad should look like.
Gomes is a must in my opinion - he is the only player capable of shielding the back four and effectively providing consistent physicality and energy to the midfield.
From there, I was torn between Éderson and Paquetá, but Ederson offers more defensively, and I do not think Brazil will have any issues creatively finding runners with Raphinha in the side (more on him later).
Now that the deep bully and primary distributor spots are spoken for, the final slot, in my mind, should go to a ball carrier. As I mentioned before, Pereira is the best in this regard, but Douglas Luiz offers so much more in other areas, so I opted to select him.
Truthfully, I think Dorival Júnior will go for a trio of João Gomes, Lucas Paquetá, and Bruno Guimarães. As long as Gomes is at the base, any combination ahead of him should be enough to overwhelm the competition they’ll face in the Copa America (besides Argentina, of course).
Raphinha’s Key Role in the Squad
You will have likely seen that after Brazil’s hilarious 1-1 draw with the United States, Ronaldinho had some choice words for the squad in advance of this tournament. The only player to respond (that I have seen) has been Raphinha. It was a bit symbolic, in my opinion, because both are wingers / attacking midfielders, but have completely different playstyles.
Dinho personifies Jogo Bonito, perhaps even defines it, while Raphinha is more a chance creator and facilitator in possession (although he has a bit of flair himself). This is evident in his chance creation metrics, such as passes into the penalty area and xA per 90 minutes, compared to the other wingers in Brazil’s squad.
It is not just his ability to create for others - he is also one of the only forwards in the team with a consistent track record of tracking back on defense. He has by far the highest defensive actions per 90 minutes of the wingers:
Given the DNA of Brazil’s midfield (runners, passers, physical presences, but not high defensive metrics across the board), having a forward willing to come back on defense and enable Brazil to make their 4-3-3 in attack become a 4-4-2 in defense will be critical. Plus, if I get my wish and Yan Couto does start at right back, Raphinha’s defensive work rate will be especially beneficial on that side of the pitch
Plus, Raphinha is a great match to play alongside players like Rodrygo, Savio, and Vini Jr., due to his orientation to find a pass rather than make a run himself. He is not the most talented player in the squad, but his role might make him one of the most important to Brazil’s success.
Vinícius Júnior : Cementing his Ballon d’Or Candidacy
This section also doubles as my prediction: I believe Vinícius Júnior will make this his tournament and parlay his stellar club season with Real Madrid into a trademark trophy acquisition. From a macro view of world football, to me, it seems obvious that he would finalize his ascension into “Ballon d’Or Front Runner” status with this tournament. For starters, he enters the competition as Brazil’s main man, and although Argentina is as strong as ever, the rest of CONMEBOL is below its usual standard.
The Copa America is really setting up for Vini to officially take the reins from Neymar for the national team, and launch the football world into a conversation around “are the three best players in the world all on the same team for the first time ever?” Think about it: Mbappé, Bellingham, and Vini all have a case to be considered the best player in the world, and even if they aren’t the numbers one, two, and three, they are all definitely in the top ten.
My case for Vinícius Júnior’ to be considered best in the world revolves around one thesis: he is in a world of his own in terms of goal contributions compared to wingers, and compared to strikers, nobody in the world matches his on the ball ability.
The Brazilian, compared to all wingers and attacking midfielders in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues, plotted by xG and Success Attacking Actions:
Nobody matches his combination of attacking involvement and goal scoring.
As for his ability on the ball compared to strikers:
Genuinely not in the same stratosphere.
One final comparison for good measure: all of the wingers in Europe’s top 5 leagues to rank in the 95th percentile or better for Prg Carries, Dribbles, NPG, xG+xA, and Offensive Actions per 90 minutes:
Of course he is the only one. How ridiculous is that? To be 95th percentile or better in all of those statistical categories. What a player.
This team is set up to maximize his skills, and all of the narrative stars are aligning to make this Vinícius Júnior’s coronation. If he leads Brazil to the Copa America title like I believe he will, we will not be asking the question, “should Vinícius Júnior win the Ballon d’Or?”. We will be asking the question, “how many more Ballon d’Ors will he win in his career?”.
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